A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
